Horizon scanning – Big Picture 2030
In our horizon scanning, we point out four areas that clearly affect the planet and everyone who lives here.
An extensive and future-oriented horizon scanning is central to leading sustainability work that creates long-term value. To ensure relevant efforts, companies like Knowit need to understand changes in the world and what the Company’s stakeholders expect. By identifying the most material topics, Knowit can prioritize its sustainability efforts and work more effectively. The first step in this is a horizon scanning of the future that we perform with external support, referred to as The Big Picture 2030. It highlights five areas where digitalization is playing a crucial role in impacting the planet and driving sustainable development forward:
- The global economy.
- Population growth.
- The transition to a fossil-free and circular
economy. - The climate and planetary boundaries.
- The fast technological development and AI.
The uncertainty in assessing the global economy has increased and large changes are expected to occur in the global economy up until 2030. The economic power will shift, as seven of the ten largest economies will be growth markets. This is a shift compared with in 2023, when only three of the so-called BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) were among the largest economies. This change is thought to be due to supply chains being more local and changing trade relations, especially between China and countries in the west. At the same time, Asia and the USA are predicted to lead the development of digital solutions, with the Nordic software industry potentially increasing its revenue three-fold, compared with in 2024. On the job market, demand for technical skills is predicted to increase by 55 percent by 2030 compared with 2020.
The number of jobs in digitalization is expected to increase by 25 percent, with the largest growth coming from green shifts. Artificial intelligence (AI) will impact 60 percent of all jobs, where half of the jobs may be negatively impacted by automation. At the same time, AI can also contribute with increased productivity in the remaining jobs.
Public expenditure is also expected to change. Healthcare costs per capita in the OECD coun- tries is estimated to grow more quickly than the GDP up until 2030, which may be compensated by the march of digital technology, estimated to contribute to large savings – between 1.5 and 3 trillion dollars globally – through progress in telehealth and digital services. Within the EU, full access to digital public services and medical records is predicted by 2030.
The increased demand for Nordic digital solutions, among both clients and investors, reveals the business opportunities for Knowit related to digitalization and innovation, while also contributing to the shift towards more sustainable solutions. Digitalization also aids in streamlining of public expenses and facilitates the transition to a low carbon dioxide economy. The increased compe- tition for skilled workforce may create challenges on Knowit’s home markets and may also limit the Company’s possibilities of international expansion.
In 2030, the world population is expected to reach 8.5 billion, an increase from 8 billion in 2022. In the Nordic region, the population is expected to increase by 10 percent, where 75 percent of the growth is driven by migration, despite a more restrictive approach. This creates integration challenges and creates a risk of growing economic divides. Furthermore, the Nordic population will age, with the share of the population aged 65 years or older will increase from 19 percent to 22 percent in 2030.
Urbanization is continuing globally, with 62 percent of the population living in cities in 2030, an increase from 57 percent in 2022. Cities like Stockholm and Oslo are expected to grow significantly, with populations growing by 16.5 percent and 25 percent, respectively. Other cities, like Helsinki and Warsaw, are expected to undergo slower growth.
Although Sweden was at the top of the Gender Equity Index in 2023, the country’s edge in equity matters is likely to decrease up until 2030. This highlights the need to continue promoting social inclusion, equity, and integrity, where digitalization can play an important role.
Digital solutions can contribute to managing the effects of an aging population and improving services in healthcare, education, and transportation. At the same time, this creates new challenges for the workforce, especially as regards AI, where an increasing share of women working in the AI field is considered important for future developments.
The demand for energy and raw materials will continue to increase up until 2030, which increase the need for a transition to a circular and fossil-free economy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that we will reach peak oil before 2030. Renewable energy will then provide 43 percent of the electricity produced globally, an increase from 28 percent in 2023. Electric vehicles are expected to make up 44 percent of all new consumer vehicles sold up until 2030, and reach 83 percent by 2040.
Sweden is aiming to have 65 percent of its electricity produced from renewable sources in 2030, with Finland and Denmark having similar goals of 51 percent and 55 percent, respectively. In the Nordic region, land-based wind power will play a significant role in the energy shift, with Denmark expected to lead the way in solar power.
The circular economy is expected to grow by 13 percent annually up until 2030. Globally, the market for “Everything as a Service” is expected to grow by 24.4 percent annually, reaching a level of over 3 billion dollars. In the Nordic region, the circular economy is expected to contribute with around 25 billion euros annually, and there is a potential to reach another 24 billion euros, if the countries’ circularity is increased in line with EU ambitions.
A strong potential driving force in the circular economy is the lack of rare earth metals and critical minerals, which are crucial for many industries. The EU is planning to cover 10 percent of its annual need for rare earth metals from domestic sources and to recycle at least 25 percent by 2030.
Climate change is expected to become more and more noticeable up until 2030, with temperature increases that, according to several assessments, reached the critical level of 1.5 °C already in 2024. Extreme weather events are estimated to increase by 83 percent between 2022 and 2030 and are expected to continue to impact the planet. The IT industry’s emissions are estimated to be 14 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2040. Data centers alone are expected to consume 8 percent of the world’s electricity in 2030.
The Nordic marine regions, such as the Baltic Sea, are impacted by warming. Here, climate change risks leading to more storms, loss of marine life, and rising sea levels.
Technological development and AI will continue to drive growth and economic gains, but can also contribute to societal instability and polarization. AI is expected to play a large role in the economic and societal developments in northern Europe, in particular within energy, manufacturing, and the public sector. Through AI, resources can be optimized and carbon dioxide emissions decreased, which supports the green shift.
But AI also creates challenges, in particular for the job market. Some jobs run the risk of disappearing due to automation and lifelong learning may be- come crucial to ensuring that the workforce can adapt to new requirements.
The fast expansion of 5G will continue to change both society and the economy up until 2030. 5G will enable for new services and solutions, in particular in IoT and earth observation technology. Blockchain is also expected to play a larger and more important role in several areas, such as en- suring transparency and traceability, especially in matters related to groceries and pharmaceuticals.
Do you want to know more?
Are you interested in how we work with sustainability at Knowit? Feel free to contact me, and I'll be happy to tell you more.
Joakim Pilborg
Head of Sustainability